Please read the README file in this repository.

Other analyses

• Binder sandbox (takes a few minutes to load)
• Analyze
• Croatia-Nordics-And-Some
• Europe
• North_America
• South_America
• Africa

Table of Contents

• Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia
• Cross-country comparison over absolute dates
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days
  • Confirmed
  • Dead
  • Daily Dead (7-Day Average)
  • Active
• Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis
  • Iran
  • Israel
  • Iraq
  • Georgia
  • Oman
  • Jordan
  • Kuwait
  • Bahrain
• Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak
  • List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)
  • Yemen
  • Qatar
  • Saudi Arabia
  • Tajikistan

Analysis of the most affected countries in Asia⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Iran⮸

Population $83,992,949$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $908,346$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,345,715.6}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 439.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,345,715.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $46,689$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{105,593.1}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 304.9)}}\) (asimptote \(105,593.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-27 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $228,382$ on 2020-11-26

Israel⮸

Population $8,655,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $333,084$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{378,141.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 200.4)}}\) (asimptote \(378,141.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,834$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,887.4}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 227.0)}}\) (asimptote \(4,887.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $9,429$ on 2020-11-26

Iraq⮸

Population $40,222,493$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $544,670$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{588,230.4}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 191.9)}}\) (asimptote \(588,230.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $12,125$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,940.7}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 164.7)}}\) (asimptote \(11,940.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $58,169$ on 2020-11-26

Georgia⮸

Population $3,989,167$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $118,690$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,124$ on 2020-11-26

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $18,785$ on 2020-11-26

Oman⮸

Population $5,106,626$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $122,579$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{112,373.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 140.3)}}\) (asimptote \(112,373.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-31 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,391$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,538.2}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 164.2)}}\) (asimptote \(1,538.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $7,332$ on 2020-11-26

Jordan⮸

Population $10,203,134$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $203,021$ on 2020-11-26

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $2,509$ on 2020-11-26

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $64,862$ on 2020-11-26

Kuwait⮸

Population $4,270,571$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $141,547$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{145,415.3}{1 + 10^{-0.010 (t - 169.1)}}\) (asimptote \(145,415.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $872$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{885.7}{1 + 10^{-0.009 (t - 123.3)}}\) (asimptote \(885.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,925$ on 2020-11-26

Bahrain⮸

Population $1,701,575$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $86,347$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{91,928.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 170.5)}}\) (asimptote \(91,928.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $341$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{372.2}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 163.7)}}\) (asimptote \(372.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-25 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,496$ on 2020-11-26

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Yemen recovered 93%
Qatar recovered 93%
Saudi Arabia recovered 92%
Bahrain recovered 79%
Tajikistan recovered 73%
Nepal recovered 64%
Kuwait recovered 63%
Jordan recovered 53%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 44%
Bangladesh recovered 32%

Yemen⮸

Population $29,825,964$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-05-08 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,137$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,042.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 50.2)}}\) (asimptote \(2,042.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $612$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{592.2}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 56.8)}}\) (asimptote \(592.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-05-10 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $41$ on 2020-11-26

Qatar⮸

Population $2,881,053$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $138,066$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{126,474.0}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(126,474.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $237$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{223.7}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 96.4)}}\) (asimptote \(223.7\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $2,631$ on 2020-11-26

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $356,389$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{343,925.1}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 107.5)}}\) (asimptote \(343,925.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,840$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,749.2}{1 + 10^{-0.013 (t - 129.1)}}\) (asimptote \(5,749.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $5,334$ on 2020-11-26

Tajikistan⮸

Population $9,537,645$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $12,044$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{11,419.7}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 68.2)}}\) (asimptote \(11,419.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-02 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $86$ on 2020-11-26

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{87.4}{1 + 10^{-0.008 (t - 42.2)}}\) (asimptote \(87.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-30 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $521$ on 2020-11-26